The following was republished from The Australian Newspaper. I once joked in a previous post that global warming is creating dense and more succulent grapes for wine; I didn't realize it was getting this bad! All wine lovers should be very very concerned.
CLIMATE change could wipe out up to 80 per cent of Australia's wine production as large parts of inland irrigation zones become too hot and dry to support grapevines, a US academic has warned.
Visiting Australia on a fellowship with Melbourne University, environmental scientist Dr Greg Jones said winemakers in the US and Europe were buying up land at higher altitudes and in coastal regions where cooler conditions would provide a buffer to global warming.
Similarly, in Australia, as higher temperatures reduce inland rainfall, horticultural zones reliant on irrigation, such as the Murray-Darling Basin, may no longer be productive.
"The biggest issue in Australia is how the water situation will work its way out. Without irrigation, 80 per cent of the Australian industry is in peril," Dr Jones said.
More than two-thirds of the 1.5 billion litres of wine made in Australia every year comes from hot inland zones, such as South Australia's Riverland.
"In the Murray Darling, without water, adaptation isn't going to be easy. If people can't produce the same volume crop with less water, they'll have to get out."
Meanwhile, drinkers may have to adjust to new varieties as cool-climate areas become warmer, making them unsuitable to grow delicate grapes such as pinot noir.
Dr Jones said these growers can "move up the varietal ladder" by switching to hardier varieties like Cabernet Sauvignon and Shiraz, or even more heat-tolerant varieties such as Vermentino from Spain.
"But if you're in the warmer zones and already growing those varieties and it gets warmer, there are very few varieties left to switch to," he said.
Dr Jones said while climate change was not a rapid process, it was important to begin studying the effects of the problem in order to formulate a timely response.
"It's the difference between me coming running at you with a knife and me telling you a meteor may hit the planet in the next 50 years," he said. "Climate change is slow -- it's hard for people to perceive and grab a hold of a good 10-20 year plan."
Industry veteran Brian McGuigan said climate change was the biggest threat he had seen in 48 years of winemaking, but the industry had so far been unable to decide how to react.
"One of the most concerning things that confronts winemakers and grapegrowers is that we're not aware exactly how extensive the climate change will be, and until we know the answer to that question you don't know how far south or how high you should go to continue making quality wine," he said.
Grapevines cost about $50,000 per hectare to establish, after which they take at least three years to produce a crop.
With more than 170,000 hectares of vines planted across Australia, any decision to move or replace existing vineyards will cost the industry billions.
"We're hog-tied by the concept of having to change where our grapes are grown and where our wineries are, and so we're all biting our nails at the moment hoping that there will be adequate water to keep the vineyards growing in the dryland areas," Mr McGuigan said.
Stuart McNab, director of wine production for Foster's Group, said warmer weather has shortened the time for grapes to ripen by an average of one day for each of the last 20 years.
Mr McNab is heading the company's response to climate change as chairman of the Wine Innovation Cluster, a collaboration of the Australian Wine Research Institute, University of Adelaide, CSIRO, and private research groups Provisor and Sardi.
"It's going to take a bit of time before we have to act in a big fashion. The models are changing and firming up by region," he said.
New areas suitable for growing in the southwest of South Australia and Tasmania were being identified as possible sites for future production, he said.
Peter Gago, chief winemaker at Penfolds, said winemakers with broad portfolios would be best able to adapt to climate change.
"Our warm-climate fruit at the moment may end up being hot-climate fruit, and that's where our fortified wines will come from. Our cool-climate sites might just become warm-climate sites," he said.
"But if you were a single-vineyard winemaker, like a Bordeaux Chateau, you'd be really worried."
Victorian winemaker Brown Bros has pursued a similar diversification strategy, while also pioneering special grape varieties such as Tarrango, developed by the CSIRO for Australian conditions.
Chief executive Ross Brown said the company had also established vineyards at high elevations for cool-climate fruit.
"But if it gets significantly warmer, it might not be cold enough for the cold-climate fruit up in the ranges," he said.
While high-altitude vineyards may be able to be planted with warm-climate fruit, it would mean an end to his company's ability to produce some styles, such as sparkling whites.
"You wouldn't replace them. You'd have to keep looking for a cooler spot. That's the challenge -- can you go any higher or any further south? But you can't go any higher because you run out of soil."
